NOAA released its 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook on May 22, covering June 1 through November 30, with a 60% chance of an above-normal season: 13 to 19 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes and 3 to 5 could reach Category 3 or stronger. For anyone planning charter in the Caribbean this year, the second figure is the one that matters most.
Contents
- What NOAA released on May 22
- The 2025 outlook numbers, explained
- What counts as an "above-normal season"
- How hurricane season factors into Caribbean charter planning
- Where to track the season as it develops
- FAQ
What NOAA Released on May 22
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the US federal agency responsible for climate and ocean monitoring, released its official 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook on May 22, 2025. The official season runs from June 1 through November 30, 2025, covering the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. It is a probabilistic forecast issued ahead of the season — not a report on storms that have already occurred.
For readers unfamiliar with this newsroom: Voguer is a Brazilian company that runs a domestic boat-rental marketplace, voguer.com.br, alongside voguer.yachts, its international superyacht charter brand, which is why Brazilian-owned coverage extends to a US forecast with direct implications for Caribbean charter.
The 2025 Outlook Numbers, Explained
The May 2025 outlook set out the following figures for the season:
| Indicator | NOAA forecast (May 2025) |
|---|---|
| Chance of an above-normal season | 60% |
| Named storms | 13 to 19 |
| Hurricanes | 6 to 10 |
| Major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) | 3 to 5 |
| Official season window | June 1 – November 30, 2025 |
A storm earns a name once it reaches sustained winds of at least 39 mph (63 km/h); it is classified as a hurricane at 74 mph (119 km/h); and it counts as major — Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale — once winds exceed 111 mph (178 km/h). Those are the three thresholds NOAA itself uses to describe how strong a season is expected to be.
What Counts as an "Above-Normal Season"
NOAA classifies a season as "above-normal" when the expected number of storms exceeds the historical benchmark the agency uses for year-to-year comparison. The 2025 outlook puts a 60% chance on that scenario — a meaningful probability, but not a certainty: there remains a chance the season lands within or below that benchmark, even with the most likely scenario pointing the other way.
How Hurricane Season Factors Into Caribbean Charter Planning
The Caribbean is one of the world's most sought-after charter destinations, with islands such as the Bahamas, the Virgin Islands and Saint-Barthélemy hosting yachts of every size year-round. Hurricane season, running June through November, overlaps a large part of the calendar during which charter operators and owners actively monitor alerts from the National Hurricane Center — the NOAA unit responsible for real-time hurricane tracking — and adjust routes as storms form and develop.
That ongoing monitoring is standard practice across the charter industry in the region, regardless of a yacht's size. A forecast like 2025's, with an elevated probability of a more active season, reinforces the value of staying in direct contact with the operator running a given itinerary and checking official updates before any trip scheduled between June and November.
Where to Track the Season as It Develops
NOAA, through the National Hurricane Center, publishes regular updates throughout the season, including tracking of developing systems and the projected path of each named storm. For international charter guests in the Caribbean — including through operators such as Voguer Yachts, Voguer's international arm for superyacht charter — this is the official reference point for last-minute decisions on routes and dates.
FAQ
When is the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season? It runs from June 1 through November 30, 2025, covering the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, under the official calendar NOAA uses for that basin.
What did NOAA forecast for the 2025 hurricane season? On May 22, NOAA put a 60% chance on an above-normal season, with 13 to 19 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes and 3 to 5 could reach Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
What does "named storm" mean? It is a tropical storm that reaches sustained winds of at least 39 mph (63 km/h), the threshold at which it receives a proper name from the annual list NOAA uses for public identification and tracking.
What is the difference between a hurricane and a "major" hurricane? A hurricane has sustained winds starting at 74 mph (119 km/h). A major hurricane — Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale — has winds above 111 mph (178 km/h), with the potential for significant structural damage.
Does NOAA's forecast say where hurricanes will make landfall? No. The May outlook estimates overall expected activity for the entire Atlantic basin across the season — the number of storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes — not the track of any specific system, which can only be forecast once a storm actually forms.
How does the Caribbean factor into the yacht charter calendar? Hurricane season, June through November, covers part of the calendar during which operators and owners in the Caribbean actively monitor National Hurricane Center alerts and adjust routes as storms form — standard practice across the region's charter industry.
Where can I track hurricane season updates? The official channel is the National Hurricane Center, the NOAA unit responsible for real-time Atlantic storm tracking, which publishes regular bulletins throughout the season, from June through November.
Does hurricane season only affect the Caribbean? No. The basin covered by NOAA's outlook includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the US Atlantic coast, in addition to the Caribbean Sea — all areas historically in the path of tropical storms between June and November.
Planning Charter With the Season in Mind
Voguer Yachts runs international superyacht charter with attention to the calendar and conditions of each destination, including the Caribbean during hurricane season. In Brazil, Voguer's domestic marketplace covers rentals in destinations of its own, while recent industry milestones — from Feadship's 100-metre Project 824 float-out to the winners of the 2025 World Superyacht Awards — show the kind of vessels that also cruise these same waters outside the risk season.
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